Stock Talk

Closing Out 2022 And, It’s Still Not A Pretty Picture.... |

On December 16th, we released a podcast warning that our call for a 4th quarter rally should be running into resistance in both price and time due to 4 things. One, more Federal Reserve hawkish talk would be forthcoming, 2-chart technicals, 3-stock buybacks slowing into year end, and 4- year end tax loss selling by individuals.. Well, someone out there might have seen the same things we did. We’ve sold off hard since mid that week.

60/40 Portfolio | Don’t Give Up, Don’t Ever Give Up - Jim Valvano

What does Jim Valvano's Don't Give Up, Don't Ever Give Up speech have to do with your 60/40 portfolio...

As of this writing, December 9th, the typical 60% Stocks and 40% Bonds portfolio was down almost -15% year to date in 2022. This makes 2022, one of the worst 5 years for a “balanced” portfolio like this. Here’s a chart from Lombard Odier, showing how bad and rare 2022 has been for this well-known retirement planning strategy. How bad was the loss sustained by 60/40 through Q3 2022? Looking at calendar year returns dating back to the mid-1920s, the loss ranks second all-time. For the first 3 quarters of 2022, the losses experienced in the traditional balanced portfolio were greater than any year since 1931.

Do you need a Retirement Success Plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at (877) 404-0177 @or fill out this form for a free consultation: https://click2retire.com/jeromevscommitteraisingrates

Inflation, Rate Hikes, Midterm Cycles, Margin Levels, Reasons for a Rally? Has Mr. Right Appeared?

With the S&P 500 probing its lows for the year, investor anxiety near highs, and sentiment near lows, on Friday, October 14th, the Oak Harvest Investment team released our weekly stock talk podcast and its title? What could go right with your portfolio in the 4th quarter? Click here for more!

Recall that back in October, the Federal Reserve was on the move with historically large and fast interest rate hikes. From the lowest level on record to over 300 basis points in just nine months. Since then, they've added another 75 basis points, and they're expected to add another 50 in just another week at the December meeting. Take a look at the table with their year-to-date moves. Remember that the Fed directly controls short-term interest rates

Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at (877) 404-0177 @or fill out this form for a free consultation: https://click2retire.com/valuetraptrickYT

Does China Matter for YOUR Retirement Portfolio going into 2023?

With civil unrest in China being broadcasted for the rest of the world to see, the financial markets are slated to have a reaction sooner than later. What will this turn of events overseas mean for your income plan going into 2023? Click here for more!

Do you need a Retirement Success Plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at (877) 404-0177 or fill out this form for a free consultation: https://click2retire.com/chinamatters2023

Billionaire Ray Dalio now says Cash is NOT Trash in 2022?

Is cash indeed not trash? Is this relevant for your retirement plan? Back in 2021 during the COVID pandemic, billionaire Ray Dalio told the masses that cash is trash. Seemingly a year later he has completely reversed this statement and now states the opposite. Click here to learn more!

Do you need a Retirement Success Plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at (877) 404-0177 or fill out this form for a free consultation: https://click2retire.com/cashnottrash

Jerome Powell vs The Committee - Raising Interest Rates while You’re in Retirement

Relevant for your Retirement Success? In a much-anticipated move, the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the US, raised short-term borrowing rates to a target range of 3.75-4%. While this was expected, interest rate moves are always news for your money and income plan. GO ASTROS! Click here for the full article!

Fed moves are almost always news for you, your family, and your money. As it has been all year, markets were once again whipsawed on the day of the Fed's interest rate increase.

Link to article about Fed: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/federal-reserve-releases-minutes-from-its-november-meeting.html

Do you need a Retirement Success Plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at (877) 404-0177 @or fill out this form for a free consultation: https://click2retire.com/jeromevscommitteraisingrates

Value Stock or Value Trap...Trick or Treat | Stock Talk Podcast

The subject of this week's podcast? Is that a value stock or group? Or a value trap? When to be a contrarian and not be too early.

We've all done it as investors, even the great Warren Buffett. The "It" is buying a stock or holding on to a stock based on valuation, holding on to it because it's down -30 to 50%, or thinking it's "cheap" only to be massively disappointed by its stock returns going forward. The poster child for this kind of value trap over the last four quarters has been the stock of Facebook, now known as Meta. Click here for more!

Way Back to 1974 Is History Repeating Itself | Stock Talk Podcast

2022 is nearing a historically bad first three quarters for investors in stocks and bonds globally in many ways. The main culprit is our Federal Reserve vowing to bust inflation now by implementing the most aggressive monetary tightening the world has seen since 1994. With most stock indexes down -20% or more, and many bond investors sporting similar sized losses, the lingering question many investors are asking is "Are we there yet?" Are the "lows in for the year?" It's the question asked on a daily basis, with most on T.V. now siding on the side of no. We, like others, don't know for sure. The key signs we are looking for remain a peak in real interest rates and a peak in the U.S. dollar. Click here for more!

Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at (877) 404-0177 or fill out this form for a free consultation: click2retire.com/wayback1974repeat

 

What Could Go Right? | Stock Talk Podcast

2022 has been a bad nine months for investors in stocks and bonds globally as our Federal Reserve has vowed to bust inflation now. Never mind that our Fed fueled a large part of the inflation currently in the system by downplaying inflation in 2021 and the job market ahead of their inflation goals. They were watching lagging government data while much of the real-time data said it was in the system. Even Fed Governor Christopher Waller admitted last week that they are looking at lagging data, particularly lagging housing market data. Click here for more!

The question to me now isn't down negative twenty to twenty-five percent on the S&P500 over ten months, "what could go wrong" now? That list is well known by now. The question I want to ask is, what could go right?

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/whatcouldgorightPB

Interest Rate Cycles - “The WayBack Machine: 1994”

Global risk asset markets continue to move wildly and trend lower as investors wrestle with the speed at which global Central Banks are raising interest rates and more importantly with the speed at which our Federal Reserve is shocking markets with its multiple 75 basis point rate increases as economic growth grinds to a crawl globally. Last week, the Bank of England, in order to both defend the British pound, and to stave off a pension liquidity crisis, made an emergency intervention announcing it would buy as much government debt as needed to restore stability to currency and bond markets. Click here for more.

In layman's terms, UK's central bank pivoted back to QE, quantitative easing. So that's three central banks back on the QE trail again, the UK, Japan, and Korea. 2022 has been no fun for investors outside of a few macro hedge funds.

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/interstcycleswayback