Stock Talk

The Fed’s “Real”ly Hurting Risk Assets

Stock markets moved sharply higher into mid-August, hoping for a shift towards an easier Fed in the fourth quarter and in 2023. Real interest rates were falling into Chairmen Powell's speech in late August. Jerome Powell's 8-minute speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, August 26th, threw cold water on that. The Fed's September 22nd FOMC release and the question-and-answer session that followed with Chairmen Powell put further upward pressure on real interest rates and downward pressure on all risk assets. There was only one winner on the day. The U.S. dollar hit a new decade high. For now, the dollar remains the world's currency of safety. Click here for more!

Turn on the financial news, and you’re bound to have heard the stories for at least 2 weeks already. The story that seasonally speaking, the month of September has been the worst month for stock returns historically speaking. Going back to 1928, the S&P500 is up only 45% of the time with a negative average return of about -1.1%. Midterm Presidential years, like we are in right now, show pretty much the same results, up less than 50% of the time with an average negative return of also -1.15% before getting into the historically seasonally stronger 4th quarter. Third quarters tend to go out on a down note and are not very promising at first glance. However, this short-term pain usually creates longer-term opportunities for investors.

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/3BYsB0P

The Fed is being “Real”ly Aggressive Trying to Catch-up

Stock markets moved sharply higher into mid-August on hope for a shift toward an easier Fed in the 4th quarter and in 2023. Real interest rates were falling into Chairmen Powell's speech in late August, having peaked on June 15th. The markets had interpreted Powell's July comments to signal the possibility of a downshift in the pace of rate hikes. Jerome Powell's 8-minute speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, August 26th threw cold water on that. Since then, virtually every asset market in the world has moved lower on a price basis. Stocks lower, Bond prices lower. Commodity prices? Lower. Click here for more info!

Turn on the financial news, and you’re bound to have heard the stories for at least 2 weeks already. The story that seasonally speaking, the month of September has been the worst month for stock returns historically speaking. Going back to 1928, the S&P500 is up only 45% of the time with a negative average return of about -1.1%. Midterm Presidential years, like we are in right now, show pretty much the same results, up less than 50% of the time with an average negative return of also -1.15% before getting into the historically seasonally stronger 4th quarter. Third quarters tend to go out on a down note and are not very promising at first glance. However, this short-term pain usually creates longer-term opportunities for investors.

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/fedaggressivePB

Are We Having a Seasonally Strong September? | Stock Talk Podcast

September is historically the worst stock return month of the year.  Case closed?  Not necessarily, according to more analysis by Stephen Suttmeier’s data team at Merrill Lynch. Click here to learn more.

Turn on the financial news, and you’re bound to have heard the stories for at least 2 weeks already.  The story that seasonally speaking, the month of September has been the worst month for stock returns historically speaking.  Going back to 1928, the S&P500 is up only 45% of the time with a negative average return of about -1.1%.  Midterm Presidential years, like we are in right now, show pretty much the same results, up less than 50% of the time with an average negative return of also -1.15% before getting into the historically seasonally stronger 4th quarter.  Third quarters tend to go out on a down note and are not very promising at first glance.  However, this short-term pain usually creates longer-term opportunities for investors.

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/septemberstockseasonalPB

Jackson Hole “Real”ly “Interest”ing | Stock Talk Podcast

In the second half of July, stock markets moved sharply higher into mid-August on the hope for a shift towards an easier Fed in 2023. Real interest rates were falling then, having peaked on June 15. The markets had interpreted Powell's July comments to signal the possibility of a downshift in the pace of rate hikes.

In case you missed it, Jerome Powell did pretty much what everyone who works for him said he would. He reiterated the central bank's commitment to fighting inflation as its top priority over economic growth. Click here for more.

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors:

https://click2retire.com/summerbuythedip

 

It’s Still Summer - Where Do We Stand? Is It Time To Buy The Dip? ”Time To Light The Candle?”

"It's still summer, where do we stand now? Is it time for FOMO? Time for fear of missing out and, as Stewart said 25 years ago, "time to light this candle?" Or, is it time to be measured and, "buy the dips?" No one, including myself, can say with absolute certainty that, yes, the lows are in for the year. Click here for more.

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/stillsummerwheredowestandPB

2nd Half Outlook Part 2 | Stock Talk Podcast

The first half of 2022 is behind us. It was abysmal in the markets. We suffered the first true correction since the Covid crash in the first quarter of 2020. However, we also extended that downward to the first -20% bear market drawdown in years. But the question is now? What's in store for the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023? Are "THE" lows in for 2022? Click here for more.

At Oak Harvest, we think our clients are best served by us helping them with their future needs and risks, instead of dwelling on the past. Our forecasting is far from perfect, but we like to keep you up on what it's saying about the uncertain future, not rehashing an already certain past.

Stock Talk is a weekly podcast dedicated to discussing the Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little Education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money! Also available on Spotify, Google Play and Podbean.

Do you have a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at: (877) 896-0040 @

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/2ndhalfoutlook2022PB

2nd Half of 2022 Market Outlook Part 1 - Where Do We Go From Here | Stock Talk Podcast

Wondering what the 2nd half of 2022 will look like? What's the market outlook? We have had a big, big rally in stocks over the last six weeks. We thought this was likely back in late June and early July. We published our thoughts with our July 1st video, "Opportunity Knocks early." However, from here, the indicators we watch say we should expect a couple of months of waffling before the market decides its true intention, which is potentially upward. So, where do we go from here? Click here for more.

 

At Oak Harvest, we think our clients are best served by us helping them with their future needs and risks, instead of dwelling on the past. Our forecasting is far from perfect, but we like to keep you up on what it's saying about the uncertain future, not rehashing an already certain past.

 

Stock Talk is a weekly podcast dedicated to discussing the Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little Education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money! Also available on Spotify, Google Play and Podbean.

 

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/wheredowego2022

Did You Miss Out on the June 16th Lows? | Stock Talk Podcast

Are the stock market lows in for the year?  Or is this another "bear market" rally?  Is this year's correction and "bear market" decline behind us and in the rear-view mirror for good?  Was June 16th and 17th the low for the stock markets for 2022?  Those are the questions on almost everyone's mind and the ones we are getting asked at Oak Harvest on the investment side almost daily. Click here to learn more!

At Oak Harvest, we think our clients are best served by us helping them with their future needs and risks, instead of dwelling on the past. Our forecasting is far from perfect, but we like to keep you up on what it's saying about the uncertain future, not rehashing an already certain past.

Stock Talk is a weekly podcast dedicated to discussing the Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little Education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money! Also available on Spotify, Google Play and Podbean.

Do you have a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at:  (877) 896-0040 @

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/june16thlows

 

 

Michael Hartnett is so Bearish, He’s Bullish | Stock Talk Podcast

Michael Hartnett is the Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch. Amongst all of Merrill's economists and strategists, he is perhaps the most well followed by institutional and retail investors. It's a big title, and he's followed by 100's of thousands of advisors and millions of investors. He's been around the block for a few decades and seen a few economic and stock cycles.

He predominately uses a data-driven approach. While too conservative in his second-half 2021 outlook, he was one of the first sell-side strategists to correctly call for a first-half 2022 sell-off for what turned out to be the right reason.

That reason. Higher inflation and slowing growth. This is also known as "stagflation" in economic circles. Late Monday night last week. Early Tuesday morning, July nineteenth, he released his much-anticipated Global Fund Managers Survey. Its title, in bold headlines, read, "I'm so Bearish. I'm Bullish." Here are the links to the previous videos on Opportunity Knocks:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8T_FyBjyQG8&list=PLxj0FBH5Bt8twiZx9RvxpW9AydohZ5W3-&index=19

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Hq0S3asRWw&list=PLxj0FBH5Bt8twiZx9RvxpW9AydohZ5W3-&index=37

Here’s a link to Jim Cramer’s July 19th episode reviewing Larry Williams charts. We’ve discussed Mr. William's work in prior videos. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/19/charts-suggest-tuesdays-rally-could-just-be-at-the-beginning-jim-cramer-says.html

 At Oak Harvest, we think our clients are best served by us helping them with their future needs and risks, instead of dwelling on the past. Our forecasting is far from perfect, but we like to keep you up on what it's saying about the uncertain future, not rehashing an already certain past. Stock Talk is a weekly podcast dedicated to discussing the Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market.

Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little Education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money! Also available on Spotify, Google Play and Podbean.

Do you have a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at: (877) 896-0040 @ If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors:

https://click2retire.com/juneinflation

About Chris Perras, CFA®, CLU®, ChFC®, Chief Investment Officer As CIO, Chris is lead investment strategist and director of research at Oak Harvest Financial Group. Chris develops the firm's core market outlook, putting his decades of experience and expertise to work for our clients. He hosts Oak Harvest's podcast, "Stock Talk," available on the website with new episodes each week. Chris completed his undergraduate studies at Georgia Tech, and went on to obtain an MBA from the Harvard Business School. Driven by a desire to maximize his knowledge and skill set, Chris acquired a plethora of financial planning and investment management qualifications, becoming a Chartered Life Underwriter (CLU®), a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC®), and a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®).

June Inflation - For Better or Worse | Stock Talk Podcast

It’s summer in the markets and while many people are off enjoying a vacation with their spouse, family or friends, many investors, and short-term traders in particular, are focused on the specifics of government data releases, what they mean for future Federal Reserve monetary actions, and what that might mean for the markets the next 6 to 12 months. Click here to learn more.

Remember, the market cares about marginal. Are things going to get marginally better or worse? Are energy costs going higher or lower? Is the dollar peaking? Or trending? Are shipping costs increasing or decreasing? Labor costs? Accelerating or topping out? Those are the questions to keep at the forefront of your mind as you review future government data reports or read up on our economy throughout the summer months.

Link to Jim Cramer's video: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/07/13/jim-cramer-explains-why-he-believes-the-fed-is-winning-its-battle-against-inflation.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Mail

 

Stock Talk is a weekly podcast dedicated to discussing the Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little Education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money! Also available on Spotify, Google Play and Podbean.

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/juneinflation