Stock Talk

What Could Go Right? | Stock Talk Podcast

2022 has been a bad nine months for investors in stocks and bonds globally as our Federal Reserve has vowed to bust inflation now. Never mind that our Fed fueled a large part of the inflation currently in the system by downplaying inflation in 2021 and the job market ahead of their inflation goals. They were watching lagging government data while much of the real-time data said it was in the system. Even Fed Governor Christopher Waller admitted last week that they are looking at lagging data, particularly lagging housing market data. Click here for more!

The question to me now isn't down negative twenty to twenty-five percent on the S&P500 over ten months, "what could go wrong" now? That list is well known by now. The question I want to ask is, what could go right?

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/whatcouldgorightPB

Interest Rate Cycles - “The WayBack Machine: 1994”

Global risk asset markets continue to move wildly and trend lower as investors wrestle with the speed at which global Central Banks are raising interest rates and more importantly with the speed at which our Federal Reserve is shocking markets with its multiple 75 basis point rate increases as economic growth grinds to a crawl globally. Last week, the Bank of England, in order to both defend the British pound, and to stave off a pension liquidity crisis, made an emergency intervention announcing it would buy as much government debt as needed to restore stability to currency and bond markets. Click here for more.

In layman's terms, UK's central bank pivoted back to QE, quantitative easing. So that's three central banks back on the QE trail again, the UK, Japan, and Korea. 2022 has been no fun for investors outside of a few macro hedge funds.

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/interstcycleswayback

The Fed’s “Real”ly Hurting Risk Assets

Stock markets moved sharply higher into mid-August, hoping for a shift towards an easier Fed in the fourth quarter and in 2023. Real interest rates were falling into Chairmen Powell's speech in late August. Jerome Powell's 8-minute speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, August 26th, threw cold water on that. The Fed's September 22nd FOMC release and the question-and-answer session that followed with Chairmen Powell put further upward pressure on real interest rates and downward pressure on all risk assets. There was only one winner on the day. The U.S. dollar hit a new decade high. For now, the dollar remains the world's currency of safety. Click here for more!

Turn on the financial news, and you’re bound to have heard the stories for at least 2 weeks already. The story that seasonally speaking, the month of September has been the worst month for stock returns historically speaking. Going back to 1928, the S&P500 is up only 45% of the time with a negative average return of about -1.1%. Midterm Presidential years, like we are in right now, show pretty much the same results, up less than 50% of the time with an average negative return of also -1.15% before getting into the historically seasonally stronger 4th quarter. Third quarters tend to go out on a down note and are not very promising at first glance. However, this short-term pain usually creates longer-term opportunities for investors.

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/3BYsB0P

The Fed is being “Real”ly Aggressive Trying to Catch-up

Stock markets moved sharply higher into mid-August on hope for a shift toward an easier Fed in the 4th quarter and in 2023. Real interest rates were falling into Chairmen Powell's speech in late August, having peaked on June 15th. The markets had interpreted Powell's July comments to signal the possibility of a downshift in the pace of rate hikes. Jerome Powell's 8-minute speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, August 26th threw cold water on that. Since then, virtually every asset market in the world has moved lower on a price basis. Stocks lower, Bond prices lower. Commodity prices? Lower. Click here for more info!

Turn on the financial news, and you’re bound to have heard the stories for at least 2 weeks already. The story that seasonally speaking, the month of September has been the worst month for stock returns historically speaking. Going back to 1928, the S&P500 is up only 45% of the time with a negative average return of about -1.1%. Midterm Presidential years, like we are in right now, show pretty much the same results, up less than 50% of the time with an average negative return of also -1.15% before getting into the historically seasonally stronger 4th quarter. Third quarters tend to go out on a down note and are not very promising at first glance. However, this short-term pain usually creates longer-term opportunities for investors.

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/fedaggressivePB

Are We Having a Seasonally Strong September? | Stock Talk Podcast

September is historically the worst stock return month of the year.  Case closed?  Not necessarily, according to more analysis by Stephen Suttmeier’s data team at Merrill Lynch. Click here to learn more.

Turn on the financial news, and you’re bound to have heard the stories for at least 2 weeks already.  The story that seasonally speaking, the month of September has been the worst month for stock returns historically speaking.  Going back to 1928, the S&P500 is up only 45% of the time with a negative average return of about -1.1%.  Midterm Presidential years, like we are in right now, show pretty much the same results, up less than 50% of the time with an average negative return of also -1.15% before getting into the historically seasonally stronger 4th quarter.  Third quarters tend to go out on a down note and are not very promising at first glance.  However, this short-term pain usually creates longer-term opportunities for investors.

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/septemberstockseasonalPB

Jackson Hole “Real”ly “Interest”ing | Stock Talk Podcast

In the second half of July, stock markets moved sharply higher into mid-August on the hope for a shift towards an easier Fed in 2023. Real interest rates were falling then, having peaked on June 15. The markets had interpreted Powell's July comments to signal the possibility of a downshift in the pace of rate hikes.

In case you missed it, Jerome Powell did pretty much what everyone who works for him said he would. He reiterated the central bank's commitment to fighting inflation as its top priority over economic growth. Click here for more.

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https://click2retire.com/summerbuythedip

 

It’s Still Summer - Where Do We Stand? Is It Time To Buy The Dip? ”Time To Light The Candle?”

"It's still summer, where do we stand now? Is it time for FOMO? Time for fear of missing out and, as Stewart said 25 years ago, "time to light this candle?" Or, is it time to be measured and, "buy the dips?" No one, including myself, can say with absolute certainty that, yes, the lows are in for the year. Click here for more.

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/stillsummerwheredowestandPB

2nd Half Outlook Part 2 | Stock Talk Podcast

The first half of 2022 is behind us. It was abysmal in the markets. We suffered the first true correction since the Covid crash in the first quarter of 2020. However, we also extended that downward to the first -20% bear market drawdown in years. But the question is now? What's in store for the second half of 2022 and the first half of 2023? Are "THE" lows in for 2022? Click here for more.

At Oak Harvest, we think our clients are best served by us helping them with their future needs and risks, instead of dwelling on the past. Our forecasting is far from perfect, but we like to keep you up on what it's saying about the uncertain future, not rehashing an already certain past.

Stock Talk is a weekly podcast dedicated to discussing the Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little Education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money! Also available on Spotify, Google Play and Podbean.

Do you have a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at: (877) 896-0040 @

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/2ndhalfoutlook2022PB

2nd Half of 2022 Market Outlook Part 1 - Where Do We Go From Here | Stock Talk Podcast

Wondering what the 2nd half of 2022 will look like? What's the market outlook? We have had a big, big rally in stocks over the last six weeks. We thought this was likely back in late June and early July. We published our thoughts with our July 1st video, "Opportunity Knocks early." However, from here, the indicators we watch say we should expect a couple of months of waffling before the market decides its true intention, which is potentially upward. So, where do we go from here? Click here for more.

 

At Oak Harvest, we think our clients are best served by us helping them with their future needs and risks, instead of dwelling on the past. Our forecasting is far from perfect, but we like to keep you up on what it's saying about the uncertain future, not rehashing an already certain past.

 

Stock Talk is a weekly podcast dedicated to discussing the Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little Education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money! Also available on Spotify, Google Play and Podbean.

 

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/wheredowego2022

Did You Miss Out on the June 16th Lows? | Stock Talk Podcast

Are the stock market lows in for the year?  Or is this another "bear market" rally?  Is this year's correction and "bear market" decline behind us and in the rear-view mirror for good?  Was June 16th and 17th the low for the stock markets for 2022?  Those are the questions on almost everyone's mind and the ones we are getting asked at Oak Harvest on the investment side almost daily. Click here to learn more!

At Oak Harvest, we think our clients are best served by us helping them with their future needs and risks, instead of dwelling on the past. Our forecasting is far from perfect, but we like to keep you up on what it's saying about the uncertain future, not rehashing an already certain past.

Stock Talk is a weekly podcast dedicated to discussing the Investment Team's perspective on what's happening in the market. Hosted by Chief Investment Officer Chris Perras, each episode brings you our views on stocks, the market, and the economy — with a little Education thrown in for good measure. Listen each week and help stay connected to your money! Also available on Spotify, Google Play and Podbean.

Do you have a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at:  (877) 896-0040 @

If you have $500K or more and would like a partnership with a firm to help you manage your investments and financial plan as in these videos, click on this link to connect with our advisors: https://click2retire.com/june16thlows